Late and insufficient rains in parts of Southern Africa at the end of 2011 have raised concerns that the region could face a period of drought, lean harvests and food shortages after several years of bumper crops. Although we do not believe that a crisis is imminent, we assess the risks posed by poor rains at both a regional and country level in Business Monitor Online and in our weekly Emerging Markets Monitor magazine.
There are three channels through which Southern African economies could be hurt, if the region experiences the wrong kind of weather: Inflation, Economic Activity and Monetary Policy. In our article, we analyse how the above factors will affect the economies of Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Read BMI’s report here.
